We derive non-asymptotic spectral bands that bound the squared InfoNCE gradient norm via alignment, temperature, and batch spectrum, recovering the 1/τ2 law and closely tracking batch-mean gradients on synthetic data and ImageNet.

We derive and investigate two DPO variants that explicitly model the possibility of declaring a tie in pair-wise comparisons. We replace the Bradley-Terry model in DPO with two well-known modeling extensions, by Rao and Kupper and by Davidson, that assign probability to ties as alternatives to clear preferences. Our experiments in neural machine translation and summarization show that explicitly labeled ties can be added to the datasets for these DPO variants without the degradation in task performance that is observed when the same tied pairs are presented to DPO. We find empirically that the inclusion of ties leads to stronger regularization with respect to the reference policy as measured by KL divergence, and we see this even for DPO in its original form. We provide a theoretical explanation for this regularization effect using ideal DPO policy theory.

We study channel simulation and distributed matching, two fundamental problems with several applications to machine learning, using a recently introduced generalization of the standard rejection sampling (RS) algorithm known as Ensemble Rejection Sampling (ERS). For channel simulation, we propose a new coding scheme based on ERS that achieves a near-optimal coding rate. In this process, we demonstrate that standard RS can also achieve a near-optimal coding rate and generalize the result of Braverman and Garg (2014) to the continuous alphabet setting. Next, as our main contribution, we present a distributed matching lemma for ERS, which serves as the rejection sampling counterpart to the Poisson Matching Lemma (PML) introduced by Li and Anantharam (2021). Our result also generalizes a recent work on importance matching lemma (Phan et al, 2024) and, to our knowledge, is the first result on distributed matching in the family of rejection sampling schemes where the matching probability is close to PML. We demonstrate the practical significance of our approach over prior works by applying it to distributed compression. The effectiveness of our proposed scheme is validated through experiments involving synthetic Gaussian sources and distributed image compression using the MNIST dataset.

Engineered robust losses such as Huber, Student-$t$, and generalised cross-entropy make supervised models tolerant of contamination but cannot answer which observations are corrupted. We introduce Neural Bayesian Anomaly Mitigation (NBAM), a general-purpose drop-in loss derived from a Bayesian latent-switch mixture model: the marginal likelihood defines a robust supervised loss, and the associated posterior defines an unsupervised contamination classifier. Like Huber or Student-$t$, NBAM can replace the standard training loss in any supervised pipeline; unlike them, it additionally learns a structured contamination model and returns a calibrated per-sample contamination posterior. A learned input-dependent prior $π_ϕ(x)$ captures the spatial locality of contamination, so that samples near known corruptions are more likely to be flagged, while an Occam penalty emerges automatically and regularises against over-flagging. On CIFAR-10 with asymmetric label contamination, NBAM recovers the structure of the corruption process without supervision: the contamination posterior separates clean from corrupted samples, and the learned anomaly head identifies the direction of every label-flip pair. Alongside these capabilities, NBAM outperforms the four robust-loss baselines considered here at contamination rates 0.2-0.6.

Gaussian processes with stationary kernels on bounded domains exhibit inflated posterior variance near the boundary. Despite being a long-recognized artifact in geostatistics and a source of over-exploration in Bayesian optimization, the causes and effects of boundary-induced acquisition bias are underexplored. We trace the root cause to a simple geometric mechanism: the truncation of the kernel correlation neighborhood at the domain boundary creates an observation-independent distortion that worsens with dimensionality. We show how this distortion manifests across three acquisition classes: variance maximization concentrates selections at the corners, whereas negative integrated posterior variance and expected predictive information gain move selections inward to axis-aligned interior shells. These patterns arise without reference to any objective function, meaning that acquisition behavior can be dominated by kernel geometry rather than the desired task-specific uncertainty. To quantify this, we introduce a function-free selection-profile diagnostic for arbitrary acquisitions, kernels, and bounded-domain geometries.

Most statistical and machine learning methods for directed interactions focus on pairwise effects among variables. Even existing cyclic models represent feedback primarily through node-level dependencies, making large-scale recurrent organization difficult to estimate and compare. This limitation is particularly acute in biological and neural systems, where interactions are highly recurrent and involve many overlapping cycles. We introduce a variational framework for statistical inference on cyclic interactions. Directed interactions are represented as edge flows on a simplicial complex and evolved under an energy-minimizing dynamical system. The resulting dynamics separate transient interaction components from persistent harmonic flows, yielding a low-dimensional cycle space that captures stable recurrent organization. Rather than enumerating individual cycles, the proposed framework represents cyclic interactions as elements of a Hilbert space, enabling projection, averaging, comparison, and population-level statistical inference. We establish theoretical properties of the harmonic projection, including characterization of the cycle space, variance reduction, and population inference. Simulations demonstrate substantially improved recovery of cyclic structure in dense recurrent systems compared with existing directed-interaction methods. Applied to resting-state fMRI from 400 human subjects, the framework reveals reproducible large-scale cyclic organization that is not detectable through edgewise averaging. These results provide a scalable statistical framework for studying recurrent interactions in high-dimensional dynamical systems.

Christopher Marquis is a professor at the University of Cambridge and the author of The Profiteers. In 1930, in the depths of the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes wrote a short essay called . It is often remembered for one striking prediction: by 2030, people in wealthy countries might only need to work about 15 hours a week. What Keynes imagined was a society advanced enough to solve what he called the "economic problem" of basic material provision. If technology kept improving, and societies kept growing richer, then fewer hours of human labor would be needed to produce the necessities and comforts of life.

The film forms part of a research project undertaken by Alan Warburton which also includes a research paper and a series of satellite events. The film is based on doctoral research undertaken at Birkbeck's Vasari Centre for Art & Technology. It was commissioned by the National Videogame Museum in collaboration with the Open Data Institute (ODI) and Cambridge University's Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Intelligence . The ODI hosted a webinar on 6 May to discuss the content of the film. The panellists explored what AI can and can't do, what effects a collapse of real and virtual could have on visual culture, and if we're living in a post-truth world.

Neural processes amortize Gaussian process inference, replacing the exact $O(n^3)$ posterior with a learned $O(n)$ map from context sets to predictive distributions. For a class of latent neural processes, we bound the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence between the GP and LNP predictives, decomposing it into three interpretable sources, namely label contamination as the neural process uses label values to estimate a quantity that is label-independent in the exact GP, an information bottleneck because the finite-dimensional representation cannot resolve the full context geometry, and amortization error from a single encoder network shared across all contexts. The bottleneck truncation term decays in the representation dimension $d$ as $O(e^{-cd^{2/d_x}})$ for squared-exponential kernels on $\mathbb{R}^{d_x}$ where $c > 0$ is a kernel-dependent constant and as $O(d^{-2ν/d_x})$ for Matérn-$ν$ kernels, directly linking architecture sizing to kernel smoothness and input dimension. The label contamination term is $O(1)$ in general, with only the observation-noise component decaying as $O(1/n)$, identifying a persistent cost of routing uncertainty estimation through a label-dependent representation. These results characterize the costs of amortization within the analyzed class and yield architectural recommendations to predict variance from context locations alone in the GP-amortization regime, and replace mean aggregation with second-order pooling to close the dominant amortization gap.

Accurate modeling of aerodynamic loads is essential for understanding and predicting the responses of complex structural systems. However, these models often rely on simplifications of the true physical forces, introducing assumptions that can limit their accuracy. Validating such models becomes particularly challenging in the presence of noisy or incomplete data. To address this, we introduce a probabilistic physics-informed machine learning approach designed to reconstruct the underlying aerodynamic loads from noisy measurements of structural dynamic responses. The model avoids overfitting, eliminates the need for regularization schemes, and allows for the use of heterogeneous and multi-fidelity data during the training process. The efficacy of the approach is demonstrated through the reconstruction of aerodynamic loads on the Great Belt East Bridge, simulated under a linear unsteady assumption. Results show a strong agreement between true and predicted loads, particularly related to root mean squared errors, magnitude, phase angle and peak values of the signals. The method for load reconstructing holds broad applicability, such as modeling validation, future load estimation, and structural damage prognosis.